Stocks Surge in a Short Week as Fed Decision Looms
Market Recap for the Week of November 24, 2025
Although it was a shortened trading week because of Thanksgiving, it was a strong one for U.S. equities. The S&P 500 gained more than 3%, erasing most of November’s losses and bringing the index within striking distance of its all-time high set in October. International equities also rebounded and are now approaching a 30% year-to-date gain.
Crypto markets, however, did not fare as well. Bitcoin recovered slightly during the week, but it remains more than 25% below its all-time high—firmly in bear-market territory.
As we enter the final month of the year, investors are focused on the Federal Reserve and whether a rate cut will arrive in December. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in an 86% probability of a 25-basis-point cut and a 14% chance of no change. A rate cut could provide a tailwind for risk assets; however, if the Fed is cutting due to softening labor-market conditions, the signal for the broader economy would be far less encouraging. As always, Jerome Powell’s commentary will be closely scrutinized.
“Markets are pricing in an 86% probability of a December rate cut, with Fed commentary set to drive year-end sentiment.”
Chart of The Week
This week’s chart, sourced from Apollo Asset Management, highlights the historical relationship between Nasdaq prices—a tech-heavy index—and Bitcoin. The two have often moved in tandem, but recent market action shows a notable divergence. The takeaway: correlations can shift. Just because two assets have moved together in the past does not guarantee they will continue to do so in the future.
The commentary in this blog is for informational purposes only and should not be taken as personalized investment advice
Sources: Nasdaq, Macrobond, Apollo Chief Economist
