U.S. Markets Continue Gains Despite Mixed Employment Data
Market Recap for the Week of July 6, 2025
It was an extra-short trading week for the U.S. stock market, which was closed on July 4th and had a half day of trading on July 3rd. After hitting new all-time highs last week, U.S. stocks continued to post gains, rising by more than 1% during the shortened week.
Once again, we received mixed signals on the labor market: ADP’s employment report showed that 33,000 jobs were lost in June, while government data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) indicated that 147,000 jobs were added. It’s important to note that ADP uses actual payroll data, whereas the BLS relies on survey responses. According to the BLS report, the unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%. Although this report appears strong, I would pay attention to future updates, which could revise these initial estimates lower. Bottom line: the headline number looks great, but be on the lookout for revisions as more data becomes available. For now, expectations for a Fed rate cut are likely lower in light of this latest jobs report.
In other news, Congress passed the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” which is expected to reach the President’s desk for signing by July 4th. There are many potential economic implications tied to this legislation, which we will outline in future market updates.
“Stocks posted gains last week, but mixed jobs data reminds investors to watch for revisions.”
Chart of The Week
This week’s chart, sourced from the JPMorgan Guide to the Markets, shows the percentage of U.S. Treasuries held by foreign investors. Contrary to the belief that foreigners are hoarding U.S. debt, the chart reveals that foreign ownership has been declining since the mid-2010s. The implication is that more of the debt is now being held by U.S.-based investors—such as individual investors, pension funds, and investment companies.
The commentary in this blog is for informational purposes only and should not be taken as personalized investment advice
Chart Source: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve, U.S. Department of Treasury, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. The top five holders listed in the tables are based on the latest data. May not represent the top five holders 10 years ago. (Left) Latest represents the latest monthly data on an approximate two-month lag based on data availability. (Right) Total foreign equity holdings as a percentage of total U.S. corporate equity data (market value) are published quarterly and are shown in the graph. Data found in the table are based on monthly data from the Treasury International Capital (TIC) system, which is a U.S. government reporting system that collects data on cross-border capital flows and positions.
Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of July 2, 2025.
