Greed vs. Fear: Lessons from Bitcoin’s Latest Surge
Market Recap for the Week of July 27, 2025
Last week, I gave a quick presentation on the fundamentals of investing to a group of about 35 people. It covered just the basics—don’t try to time the market, keep a diversified portfolio, and so on. I got two questions at the end, and both people essentially asked the same thing: how do you buy Bitcoin?
Since April of this year, Bitcoin has risen by over 50% and recently hit an all-time high of $120,000 per coin. Earlier in the year, it had fallen from over $100,000 to $75,000. It's curious to me that no one was asking how to buy Bitcoin when it dropped to $75,000. Unfortunately, investors tend to pile into investments after they’ve already done really well. I have no idea where Bitcoin will be in six months or a year. But here’s what I do know: every time it hits new highs, it attracts investors chasing returns—many of whom don’t even know what it is, much less how to buy it.
Anyone who was too scared to buy Bitcoin at $75,000 has no business getting in now at $120,000. That doesn’t mean no one should own Bitcoin, but to quote Warren Buffett: “Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy only when others are fearful.” Right now, it feels like people are getting a bit greedy.
“Every time Bitcoin hits new highs, it attracts investors chasing returns—often too late.”
Chart of The Week
Our chart of the week comes from Apollo Asset Management. It shows the ten-year returns for large-cap U.S. stocks (as measured by the S&P 500) by decade.
When I talk to investors about what kind of return they can expect from stocks, many people say 10%—some even say 12%. But I believe there’s a large amount of recency bias in those expectations. Yes, U.S. stocks have delivered over 10% annually both in the 2010s and so far in the 2020s. But look at the 1960s, 1970s, and 2000s—all of which had much lower returns. In fact, many people are surprised to learn that the S&P 500 actually had a negative return in the first decade of this century.
Bottom line: U.S. stocks can average 10%, but that return is highly dependent on your starting investment date. Additionally, diversifying beyond just large-cap U.S. stocks—by adding small-cap, mid-cap, international, etc. investors can reduce the risk of having a 0% decade.
The commentary in this blog is for informational purposes only and should not be taken as personalized investment advice
Chart Source: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist
